Finance

AMD's Q3 Earnings: AI Chip Deals Drive Market Anticipation

2025-11-03

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is poised to unveil its financial performance for the fiscal third quarter, a period marked by a series of high-profile partnerships for its artificial intelligence processors. These collaborations, particularly with industry leaders such as OpenAI and Oracle, have significantly bolstered investor confidence, driving AMD's stock to remarkable gains. Despite the recent surge in market valuation, experts anticipate that the substantial revenue contributions from these new agreements will become more apparent in future financial disclosures, rather than in the immediate third-quarter results. Nevertheless, the company is projected to demonstrate strong growth across its key business divisions, including data centers, consumer computing, and gaming.

In a recent strategic move, AMD finalized an agreement to supply OpenAI with a substantial amount of graphics processing units (GPUs), totaling up to six gigawatts, specifically for its AI data centers. This pivotal deal was complemented by OpenAI's commitment to acquire approximately 160 million shares of AMD stock, representing about 10% of the company's total shares. Concurrently, AMD forged another significant alliance with Oracle, agreeing to deploy as many as 50,000 GPUs within the cloud giant's extensive network of data centers. These partnerships underscore AMD's growing influence in the burgeoning AI market.

Beyond its commercial endeavors, AMD is also playing a crucial role in governmental technology initiatives. The company is supplying the processing power for two supercomputers housed at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory. These advanced systems are part of a larger, collaborative investment of $1 billion from both public and private sectors, aimed at pushing the boundaries of scientific research and technological innovation. The successful execution of these agreements highlights AMD's versatility and its expanding reach into diverse sectors.

The announcement of these major deals has had a profound impact on AMD's market performance. Over the past month, the company's stock has soared by an impressive 57%, and its year-to-date growth stands at an astounding 114%. Looking back over the last 12 months, AMD shares have climbed by 83%. Despite this upward trajectory, AMD continues to trail Nvidia, which maintains a dominant position in the AI market and recently surpassed a $5 trillion market capitalization, dwarfing AMD's $418 billion market cap.

For the third quarter, financial analysts, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates, project AMD to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.17 on total revenue of $8.7 billion. These figures represent a considerable increase from the $0.92 EPS and $6.8 billion revenue recorded in the third quarter of the previous year. However, analysts caution that the full financial benefits from the recent OpenAI and Oracle deals are not expected to be fully reflected in this quarter's results but will likely contribute to stronger performance in subsequent periods.

Analysts from firms like UBS Global Research and Morgan Stanley have emphasized the importance of AMD's next-generation MI450 GPUs and rack-scale offerings, which are slated for deployment in the second half of 2026. These advanced products are central to AMD's long-term growth strategy. While the OpenAI agreement is seen as a significant accelerator, the reliance on cloud providers to fully integrate these six gigawatts of GPUs introduces some uncertainty. To effectively gain market share, AMD must demonstrate a superior return on investment compared to Nvidia, particularly by addressing challenges related to rack density and ecosystem compatibility.

Despite the delayed impact of the major AI chip deals, analysts anticipate robust performance in AMD's other segments for the current quarter. The data center division is expected to generate approximately $4.1 billion in revenue, an increase from $3.5 billion in the same period last year. The client segment, encompassing CPUs for laptops and desktops, is projected to reach $2.6 billion, marking a substantial 38% year-over-year growth. Furthermore, AMD's gaming division is forecasted to achieve $1.1 billion in revenue, reflecting an impressive 139% increase, signaling broad-based strength across the company's diverse product portfolio.

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